PDF version of programme – download here: Programme_Final.pdf.

Note: Oral presentations should be 12 minutes, with 5 minutes for questions. Our poster boards are 1 m wide by 2 m high. We are flexible with poster sizes, but recommend A0 portrait.


Tuesday, 5th September 2017
08:00 – 09:00 Registration
09:00 – 09:30 Opening ceremony
09:30 – 10:30 Keynote: Dr Kate White, US Army Corps of Engineers – Opportunities to Improve Resilience in a Changing World
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee break
11:00 – 12:30 Session 1: Applications, Chair: Hugo Winter
  Talk 1: Fernando Mendez – Towards TESLA-flood: a time-varying Emulator for short and long-term analysis of coastal flooding

Talk 2: Robert Neal – forecasting storm surges and extreme wave events around the UK coast using predefined weather pattern.

Talk 3: Paul Williams – The response of severe aircraft turbulence to climate change

Talk 4: Kate Brown (Simon Brown) – Future extreme weather events and their impact on the energy industry

Talk 5: Thomas Bulteau – Framing 100-year marine submersion hazard resulting from the propagation of 100-year joint hydrodynamic conditions

12:30 – 13:30 Lunch break
13:30 – 15:00 Session 2: Meteorological, Chair: Fernando J. Méndez
Talk 6: Paul Sharkey– Statistical models for extremes arising from extratropical cyclones

Talk 7: Jens Bender – Changes in seasonality of extreme precipitation during the last decades in Europe

Talk 8: Erasmo Buonomo – Extreme tropical storms from a regional climate model climate change experiment over southeast Asia

Talk 9: Simon Brown – Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change

Talk 10: David Cross – Stochastic estimation of point rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales in a changing climate

15:00 – 15:30 Coffee break
15:30 – 17:00 Session 3: Historical, Chair: Jens Bender
Talk 11: Nathalie Giloy – Reconstructing historic storm surges in the Dunkirk Area, France

Talk 12: Roberto Frau – The use of archaeological data in the Regional Bayesian analysis of extreme skew storm surges

Talk 13: Yasser Hamdi – A local frequency analysis using regional and historical information

Talk 14: Ilaria Prosdocimi – German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events

Talk 15: Florian Regnier – Increasing skew surge database with the collection of archaeological data

17:00 – 18:30 Poster Session 1 and welcome reception


Wednesday, 6th September 2017
09:00 – 09:40 Invited Talk: Prof Robert Nicholls, University of Southampton -Understanding the Changing Hydro-Environment and Ecosystem-Based Livelihoods in Coastal Bangladesh
09:40 – 11:10 Session 4: Storm surges, Chair: Ben Gouldby
Talk 16: Emma Ross – Conditional extremes modelling of ocean surge

Talk 17: Tom Howard – Projections of 21st-century changes in extreme sea levels for UKCIP18

Talk 18: Matt Eliot (Jenny Hornsby) – Comparison of tropical storm water level modelling an ensemble approach

Talk 19: Alba Cid – Statistical surge reconstruction, return water level estimations and variability for the 20th century in Southeast Asia

Talk 20: Jürgen Jensen – Mathematical Possibility vs. Physical Absurdity. How to estimate (realistic) extreme storm surge water levels (black swans)

11:10 – 11:40 Coffee break
11:40 – 13:10 Session 5: Waves, Chair: Kate White
Talk 21: Panagiota Galiatsatou – Nonstationary joint probability analysis of marine variables to access design coastal water levels under climate change

Talk 22: Ian Young – A global assessment of extreme wind speed and wave heights from satellite observations

Talk 23: Hans Hansen – Seasonal-directional extreme value analysis of North Sea Storm conditions

Talk 24: Philip Jonathan – On the spatial dependence of extreme ocean storm seas

Talk 25: Robert Shooter – Investigating and modelling extremal dependence of ocean waves

13:10 – 14:00 Lunch break
14:00 – 15:30 Session 6: Compound events, Chair: Thomas Wahl


Talk 26: Franck Mazas – Multivariate events: definition, sampling and estimate of extreme values

Talk 27: Katherine Serafin – interpreting contributions to extreme total water levels along an ocean-to-river water level gradient

Talk 28: Ulysse Pasquier – An integrated approach to modelling compound flooding hazard under a changing climate: the case of the Broads, UK.

Talk 29: Wiebke Jäger – Modelling time series of wave parameters and surges

Talk 30: Ye Liu – Threshold uncertainty for multivariate extreme value models for coastal flood risk analysis

15:30 – 16:00 Coffee break
16:00 – 17:30 Posters Session 2
19:00 Gala Dinner: The Grand Cafe


Thursday, 7th September 2017
10:00 – 10:40 Invited Talk: Prof Jonathan Tawn, University of Lancaster – Modelling Spatial Extreme Events
10:40 – 12:10 Session 7: Methods 1, Chair: Claudia Neves
  Talk 31: Hugo Winter – Improved estimation of rare return levels using spatial Bayesian extreme value models

Talk 32: Ross Towe – Modelling and estimating the clustering of extreme events

Talk 33: Doug Cresswell – Investigating the effect of uncertainty in source data on estimates of extreme sea states

Talk 34: Paul Northrop – Extreme value threshold selection

Talk 35: Hélène Pineau – Multivariate extremal analysis methodology in function of structural response

12:10 – 13:30 Lunch break
13:30 – 15:00 Session 8: Methods 2, Chair: Arne Arns
Talk 36: Claudia Neves – The block maxima method in extremum estimation

Talk 37: Marco Marani – A new approach to extreme value theory: The metastatistical extreme value distribution

Talk 38: Elena Zanini – Semi-parametric models for non-stationary environmental

Talk 39: John Bruun – Understanding long term climatic influence to extreme processes

Talk 40: Jona Lilienthal – Regional flood frequency analysis of possibly heterogeneous groups

15:00 – 15:10 Closing Statements
15:10 – 16:00 Coffee break
16:00 – 17:00 Tour of National Oceanography Centre


Friday, 8th September 2017
10:00 – 16:00 Hackathon – This will be a practical and informal day to share ideas and statistical approaches by working on real data, learn from multiple disciplines, spin up new collaborations, and to analyse real natural hazards data to try and answer key questions.


Poster Sessions 1 and 2

All posters to be presented at both sessions.


Poster 1: Thomas Bulteau, Gonéri Le Cozannet – Uncertainties of shoreline change projections along the sandy coasts of Aquitaine (southwest France)



Poster 2: Seyedreza Hosseini, Marco Marani, Marco Scaioni – A metastatistical approach to modelling extreme hurricane intensities

Poster 3: Darmesha Gabda, Jonathan Tawn – Bayesian modelling of extreme event with the link to the climatological model data

Poster 4: Sylvie Parey, T.T.H. Hoang, D. Dacunha-Castelle – Future high temperature extremes and stationarity

Poster 5: Martin Airey, Giles Harrison, Keri Nicoll, Paul Williams, and Graeme Marlton – VolcLab: A balloon-borne instrument package to measure ash, gas, electrical, and turbulence properties of volcanic plumes

Poster 6: Anne Lausier, Shaleen Jain – Quantile Regression-based reassessment of global precipitation trends


Storm Surges

Poster 7: Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, Jürgen Jensen, Stefan Talke, Jens Bender, Charitha Pattiaratchi – Sea-level rise induced amplification of coastal protection design heights

Poster 8: Toshikazu Kitano – Return level and the prediction interval over a future period of maximum sea deviance due to storm surge

Poster 9: Jessie Louisor, Hugo Winter, Pietro Bernardara, Tian Chen – Simulating extreme wave and storm surge events around the UK with a combination of numerical models and statistical analysis

Poster 10: Jeremy Rohmer, Jessie Louisor, Déborah Idier, Thomas Bulteau, François Paris, Rodrigo Pedreros – Boosting probabilistic coastal flood hazard assessments by combining extreme value analysis, full-process based models and metamodels

Poster 11: Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Mark Schuerch, Silvina C. Carretero, Athanasios T. Vafeidis – Trends and variability of storm surges in Buenpos Aires storm surges around the coastline of Denmark: comparison of methods and regionalization

Poster 12: Ivan D. Haigh, Robert Nicholls – Lessons learnt from examining 100 years of coastal flood events around the UK

Poster 13: José A. Pinto Rascón, Robert J. Nicholls, Thomas Wahl – Present and Future Flood Risk for Two Mexican Coastal Cities

Poster 14: Sien van der Plank, Sally Brown, Robert Nicholls, J Davey – Effects of coastal flood risk management on risk perceptions and behaviour

Poster 15: Leigh R. MacPherson, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, Jürgen Jensen – Development of a stochastic extreme water level model for risk analysis along the German Baltic Sea coast



Poster 16: Matt Lewis, Palmer T, Saulter A, Brown J, Neill S – Are waves bigger at high tide in the Irish Sea?

Poster 17: Ron Hoeke, Alec Stephenson, Kathleen McInnes, Robert Davy, Julian O’Grady, Mark Hemer, Gareth Williams – A multivariate statistical retrospective of two high-impact coastal events

Poster 18: Serafeim Poulos, Panagiotis Nastos, George Ghionis, Aikaterini Karditsa and Michael B. Collins – Extreme storm events and their impacts on coastal zone evolution: Examples from the Aegean and Ionian Seas (Eastern Mediterranean Sea)


Compound analysis

Poster 19: Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce Malamud, Hugo Winter, Pietro Bernardara – Exploring options to build a probabilistic model of interacting hazard events

Poster 20: Alistair Hendry, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Robert Nicholls, Hugo Winter – Assessing the characteristics and likelihood of compound flooding events

Poster 21: Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Ivan Haigh, Sanne Muis, Ted I.E. Veldkamp, Thomas Wahl, Hessel Winsemius, Philip J. Ward – Dependency of storm surge level, rainfall, and river discharge at the global scale



Poster 22: Alef Sterk, David B. Stephenson, Mark P. Holland, Ken R. Mylne – On the predictability of extremes: Does the butterfly effect ever decrease

Poster 23: Yanira Garcia, Maha Shadaydeh, Miguel Mahecha and Joachim Denzler – Biosphere anomalies detection by regression models.

Poster 24: Francesco De Leo, G. Besio, R. Zughayar, O. T. Gudmestad, S. Haver – Estimating a proper threshold within the POT approach: a simple and intuitive procedure

Poster 25: Pedro Folgueras, Sebastián Solari, Miguel Ángel Losada – Effects of the selection of sectors on extreme value estimation for directional design of structures at the mouth of the Río de la Plata

Poster 26: Hagen Radtke, Ivan D. Haigh, Francisco Calafat, Paolo Cipollini, Phil Goodwin, Robert Nicholls, Katy Francis – Earliest detection of sea-level rise accelerations to inform lead-time to upgrade/replace coastal flood defense infrastructure.

Poster 27: Ben Gouldby, Ivan D. Haigh, Dominic Hames – Assessing the impact of sea level rise on coastal infrastructure in England and Wales using advanced multivariate extreme value methods

Poster 28: Thomas Wahl, Ivan D. Haigh, Robert J. Nicholls, Arne Arns, Soenke Dangendorf, Jochen Hinkel, Aimée Slangen – Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis